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Quantum Computing: News, Roadmaps and Explainers

Plain-language coverage of quantum hardware roadmaps, error correction, post-quantum cryptography, and what quantum computers can and cannot do.

Latest in Quantum Computing

What we cover in Quantum Computing

This section follows quantum computing as companies and governments try to turn laboratory physics into working machines. Coverage spans the hardware roadmaps of IBM, Google, Quantinuum, IonQ, PsiQuantum and their rivals. It follows progress in quantum error correction and the rollout of post-quantum cryptography. It also gives plain assessments of what quantum computers can and cannot do.

Two developments shape the coverage. On the hardware side, Google researchers reported a result in Nature in December 2024. They said errors on the company's Willow chip fell as more qubits were added to an error-correcting code. Google described that as a challenge the field had pursued for almost 30 years. IBM says it will deliver a fault-tolerant machine called Starling, with 200 logical qubits, by 2029. That is a company target, not a certainty. Public money is involved too. Anderon is an IBM company that operates a quantum wafer foundry. In September 2026 it said it had finalized a $1 billion award from the US Department of Commerce under the CHIPS and Science Act.

On the security side, the open question is one of timing. When could a quantum computer break the public-key encryption that protects much of the internet? No one knows, according to NIST. The agency says expert estimates run from a few years to a few decades. It finalized its first three post-quantum encryption standards in August 2024. A draft transition plan would disallow today's vulnerable algorithms after 2035. A June 2026 executive order set 2030 and 2031 deadlines for high-value US federal systems. Every timeline reported here is attributed to its source and treated as an estimate, not a fact.

Quantum Computing reference

Quantum Computing: common questions

When will quantum computers break encryption?
No one knows. NIST says expert estimates range from a few years to a few decades. The Global Risk Institute and evolutionQ published a survey of 26 specialists in March 2026. It asked about a quantum computer able to break 2048-bit RSA encryption within a day. The averaged chance was put at 28% to 49% within 10 years and 51% to 70% within 15 years. The panel was split, with half putting the 10-year chance below 30%. These are estimates, not a schedule.
Is quantum computing a threat to Bitcoin?
Not today, but it is a recognized future risk. Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies rely on 256-bit elliptic-curve cryptography. Researchers led by Google Quantum AI examined that scheme in a March 2026 preprint. They estimated that a future superconducting quantum computer with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits could break it in minutes. No machine of that scale has been publicly demonstrated. The authors urged cryptocurrency communities to move to post-quantum cryptography without delay.
Is quantum computing real?
Yes. Working quantum computers exist, and researchers can reach some of them over the cloud. They remain limited. NIST says the best current machines have hundreds of interconnected qubits. It says they make an error about once in every thousand operations. The US Department of Energy describes the quantum computers available today as small, noisy prototypes. NIST also notes that early demonstrations have not yet proved truly useful.
When will quantum computers be available?
Early machines are available now, mainly to researchers through cloud services. Large error-corrected systems are still roadmap targets. IBM says it will deliver Starling, a machine with 200 logical qubits, by 2029. That is a company goal and not a guarantee. NIST says many experts believe quantum computers will probably never sit on desks or in pockets. It says they think the machines may instead live in commercial computing centers, national labs and universities.

Sources

  1. What Is Post-Quantum Cryptography?, National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)
  2. Quantum Computing Explained, National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)
  3. NIST Releases First 3 Finalized Post-Quantum Encryption Standards, National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)
  4. NIST IR 8547 (Initial Public Draft): Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards, NIST Computer Security Resource Center
  5. Securing the Nation Against Advanced Cryptographic Attacks (Executive Order 14412), The White House
  6. Quantum Threat Timeline Report 2025, Global Risk Institute
  7. Quantum Threat Timeline Report 2025 (full report, PDF), Global Risk Institute and evolutionQ
  8. Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold, Nature
  9. Meet Willow, our state-of-the-art quantum chip, Google
  10. IBM Sets the Course to Build World's First Large-Scale, Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computer at New IBM Quantum Data Center, IBM Newsroom
  11. Anderon, an IBM Company, Finalizes Agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce for a $1 Billion CHIPS Award to Accelerate R&D for U.S.-Based Pure-Play Quantum Foundry, IBM Newsroom
  12. What Is Quantum Computing?, IBM
  13. DOE Explains...Quantum Computing, U.S. Department of Energy
  14. Safeguarding cryptocurrency by disclosing quantum vulnerabilities responsibly, Google Research
  15. Securing Elliptic Curve Cryptocurrencies against Quantum Vulnerabilities: Resource Estimates and Mitigations, arXiv (Babbush et al., preprint)