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US-China Tech Race: Chips, AI and Export Controls Explained

News and explainers on US-China competition in chips, AI models, robots and space, plus export controls, tariffs, rare-earth restrictions and Huawei's domestic chip effort.

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What we cover in US-China Tech Race

This section tracks the technology rivalry between the United States and China across four arenas: semiconductors, AI models, robots and space. It also follows the policy tools each government uses against the other. On the US side, the main tools are tariffs and export controls. Export controls are rules that require a government license before certain technology can be shipped abroad. On the Chinese side, they include restrictions on exports of rare earths. Rare earths are a group of metals used in the magnets found in cars, electronics and defense equipment. The section also covers China's push to build its own advanced chips, including Huawei's Ascend AI processors.

The beat matters because the two countries are close in some fields and far apart in others. Stanford University's 2026 AI Index found that the top US AI model led by just 2.7 percent as of March 2026. Yet it found US private AI investment in 2025 was more than 23 times China's. China, for its part, installed 59 percent of the world's new industrial robots in 2025, according to the International Federation of Robotics.

The rules change often. A US regulation took effect on January 15, 2026. It opened a conditional path for some Nvidia chips to be licensed for sale in China. Other requests to ship advanced chips there are still reviewed under a presumption of denial. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on September 23, 2026 that a US-China trade truce due to end on November 10 would be extended to January 10, 2027, NBC News reported. Under that truce China had suspended an expansion of its rare-earth controls, according to the White House. Explainers here state the rules as of the date they were checked. They attribute claims to the side making them.

US-China Tech Race reference

US-China Tech Race: common questions

Who is winning the AI race, the US or China?
Neither side leads on every measure. Stanford University's 2026 AI Index found that US and Chinese models have traded the top spot several times since early 2025. It found that the best US model led by 2.7 percent as of March 2026. The United States produced 59 notable AI models in 2025 to China's 35 and attracted far more private investment. China leads in research publications, patent output and industrial robot installations.
Why can't Nvidia sell its best chips to China?
US export rules require a government license to ship AI chips above set performance thresholds to China. Such requests are generally presumed denied. Since January 15, 2026, the H200 and comparable or less advanced chips can be reviewed case by case if conditions are met. Nvidia says China's government has also restricted purchases. The company says licensed H200 shipments were under 1 percent of its data center revenue in the quarter ended July 26, 2026.
Can China make 5nm chips?
Not at the level of the leading manufacturers, according to the most detailed public teardown. In December 2025 the research firm TechInsights said Huawei's Kirin 9030 phone processor was made on SMIC's N+3 process. The firm described N+3 as an extension of SMIC's 7-nanometer-class technology produced without EUV lithography. TechInsights found N+3 denser than its predecessor but still well short of the 5-nanometer processes offered by TSMC and Samsung.
Can China make EUV lithography machines?
Not commercially, as far as public reporting shows. Reuters reported in December 2025 that Chinese engineers had built a prototype extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine. According to a Tom's Hardware account of that report, the prototype generates EUV light but cannot yet make chips. The account said 2030 was described as a more realistic date for first chips than the government's 2028 goal. ASML, the sole maker of EUV machines, said in June 2026 that it has never shipped one to China.

Sources

  1. The 2026 AI Index Report, Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI (HAI)
  2. Research and Development | The 2026 AI Index Report, Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI (HAI)
  3. Five Million Robots now Operate in Factories Globally, International Federation of Robotics (IFR)
  4. Revision to License Review Policy for Advanced Computing Commodities, Federal Register (Bureau of Industry and Security, U.S. Department of Commerce)
  5. NVIDIA Corporation Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended July 26, 2026, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (NVIDIA filing)
  6. U.S. and China agree to extend trade truce through Jan. 10, Bessent says, NBC News
  7. Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Strikes Deal on Economic and Trade Relations with China, The White House
  8. A price worth paying? A mineral security premium as insurance against supply disruptions, International Energy Agency (IEA)
  9. SMIC N+3 Confirmed: Kirin 9030 Analysis Reveals How Close SMIC Is to 5nm, TechInsights
  10. ASML denies selling EUV chipmaking tool to China after report of US concern, Reuters (via AOL)
  11. China may have reverse engineered EUV lithography tool in covert lab, report claims, Tom's Hardware
  12. Can China's chip ambitions reshape the global tech landscape?, CNA (Channel NewsAsia)
  13. Advancing the Agentic World, Building a Solid Silicon Foundation, Huawei