The US-China Tech Race Explained: Chips, AI, Robots and Space
The US and its allies lead in advanced chips and AI investment. China leads in factory robots and rare-earth processing, and the gap in AI models is narrow.
// us-china tech race
US-China Chip Export Controls Timeline
Sourced, dated entries on US chip and chipmaking-tool export controls on China since October 2022, Nvidia and AMD licensing shifts, and China's mineral controls. They show what is active, suspended or scheduled.
Researched and fact-checked by AI, with no human review. How we verify
25 entries from 28 sources. Checked for news weekly; last checked
What this tracker follows
This tracker follows US export controls on advanced chips and chipmaking tools bound for China. It begins with the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) rules of October 7, 2022. It also follows China's export controls on gallium, germanium, antimony and rare earths. BIS is the Commerce Department bureau that issues these export rules.
An event gets an entry when a government publishes, changes, suspends or schedules a control. It also gets one when officials, the company or established press report a licensing decision affecting Nvidia or AMD. The same applies when the White House reports on talks about China's mineral controls. Each entry cites one main source, a primary document where one exists. It gives stated reasons as each side gave them. Entries based on a news report or company statement say so. Most Chinese notices are cited in the original Chinese. The Ministry of Commerce published an English version of its April 2025 rare earth notice. The U.S. Geological Survey's 2026 gallium summary gives a short English account of the gallium measures. One Dutch measure is included because it covers ASML's advanced lithography systems, which are chipmaking tools.
Left out on purpose:
- bills that have not become law
- tariffs
- smuggling prosecutions
- company penalties
- standalone additions to the Entity List (the BIS list of restricted foreign parties)
- outside estimates of the controls' effects
Entries marked scheduled use dates set in published rules and notices as of October 6, 2026. Those dates can change.
Scheduled next
Targets set by the organizations named. Dates like these often move.
Scheduled
China's pause on gallium, germanium and antimony curbs for the US is due to end
China's Ministry of Commerce set this date on November 9, 2025. Through November 27, 2026, Announcement No. 72 suspended the second clause of its December 2024 notice on dual-use exports to the US. That clause covers gallium, germanium, antimony, superhard materials and graphite (see December 3, 2024).
Source: 商务部公告2025年第72号 公布调整实施商务部公告2024年第46号的决定, Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China
Scheduled
US Affiliates Rule is due to return when its one-year suspension ends
BIS set the dates in a stay published in the Federal Register on November 12, 2025. The rule covers firms at least 50 percent owned by Entity List parties. Its suspension ends November 9, 2026. Its requirements return November 10, 2026, unless there is a further extension.
Timeline
White House fact sheet on Xi's state visit reports ongoing rare earth talks
President Trump hosted Xi Jinping for a state visit. Afterward, the White House said the two sides were still working on US concerns about supply shortages of rare earths and other critical minerals. It said the aim was to restore shipment levels. The fact sheet does not mention semiconductors.
Nvidia's quarterly outlook assumes no data center compute revenue from China
Nvidia reported results for its fiscal 2027 second quarter. It forecast revenue of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, for the following quarter. It said the outlook did not assume any data center compute revenue from China.
Source: NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for Second Quarter Fiscal 2027, Nvidia
White House says China will address rare earth shortages after Trump's China visit
The White House said China would address US concerns about supply shortages of rare earths and other critical minerals. It named yttrium, scandium, neodymium and indium. It said China would also address US concerns about bans or limits on sales of rare earth production and processing equipment and technology.
Nvidia says it is licensed to sell H200 chips to many customers in China
CEO Jensen Huang spoke to reporters at Nvidia's GTC event, The Register reported. It said he told them the company had been licensed for many customers in China for the H200. It said he also told them Nvidia had received purchase orders and was restarting manufacturing.
Source: Nvidia's on-again off-again H200 sales in China are now on again, The Register
BIS shifts H200-class chip exports to China to case-by-case license review
A BIS rule put license applications for Nvidia's H200, AMD's MI325X and similar chips under case-by-case review. Applicants must show no cut in chip capacity for US customers, buyer compliance procedures and independent US testing. BIS said it followed a December 8, 2025 Trump announcement.
Trump says Nvidia may ship H200 chips to approved customers in China
In a Truth Social post, President Trump said the US would allow H200 shipments to approved customers in China. He said 25% would be paid to the United States. He said the same approach would apply to AMD and Intel. The post did not cover Nvidia's newer Blackwell and Rubin chips, The Register reported.
Source: Trump says Nvidia can sell H200s to China – if Washington gets a 25 percent cut, The Register
China suspends six 2025 export control notices, including rare earth rules, until November 10, 2026
Announcement No. 70 from China's Ministry of Commerce and customs agency suspended six 2025 export control notices, Nos. 55 to 58, 61 and 62. The suspension runs from November 7, 2025 through November 10, 2026. The notices include No. 61, the rule on rare earth items made abroad (see October 9, 2025).
White House publishes terms of Trump-Xi deal covering export controls
The fact sheet said China would suspend the rare earth controls announced October 9, 2025. It said China would also issue general licenses for rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite for US end users and their suppliers. The US said it would suspend its Affiliates Rule for one year from November 10, 2025.
China extends rare earth controls to items made abroad, with a chip clause
Announcement No. 61 cited national security. It covered listed items made abroad with 0.1% or more of their value in listed Chinese-origin items. It required foreign exporters to get Chinese licenses for them from December 1, 2025. Uses in 14nm-or-below logic or 256-layer-or-above memory chips get case-by-case review.
Source: 商务部公告2025第61号 公布对境外相关稀土物项实施出口管制的决定, Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China
BIS extends Entity List restrictions to majority-owned affiliates
The Affiliates Rule applied Entity List and Military End-User List restrictions to any entity at least 50 percent owned by one or more listed parties. Under Secretary Jeffrey Kessler said loopholes had allowed exports that harm US national security and foreign policy interests.
Report: Nvidia and AMD to pay US 15% of China AI chip revenue for licenses
TechCrunch cited a Financial Times report based on unnamed sources. It reported that Nvidia and AMD agreed to pay the US government 15% of revenue from H20 and MI308 chip sales in China. In exchange, it reported, they would get export licenses. Nvidia said it follows the rules the US government sets.
Source: Nvidia, AMD may sell high-end AI chips to China if they pay US a cut, TechCrunch
Nvidia says US has assured it of licenses to resume H20 sales to China
Nvidia said it was applying to sell its H20 chip again. It said the US government had assured it the licenses would be granted, and that it hoped deliveries would begin soon. It also announced a new RTX PRO chip for China that it described as fully compliant.
Source: NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang Promotes AI in Washington, DC and China, Nvidia
Commerce announces rescission of the AI Diffusion Rule before its compliance date
Compliance requirements were due on May 15, 2025. Two days before that, Commerce announced a rescission. It said BIS planned a regulation to formalize it. It said officials were told not to enforce the rule, which it argued would have stifled US innovation. BIS also issued guidance on Huawei Ascend chips.
US tells Nvidia its H20 chip needs a license for export to China
Nvidia said the US government informed it on April 9, 2025 that a license was required to export H20 products to China. The company recorded a $4.5 billion charge for excess H20 inventory and purchase obligations in the quarter that ended April 27, 2025.
Source: NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for First Quarter Fiscal 2026, Nvidia
China puts seven medium and heavy rare earths under export licensing
Announcement No. 18 required export licenses for items related to samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium. It took effect on the day it was issued. It cited national security and non-proliferation obligations.
Source: 商务部 海关总署公告2025年第18号 公布对部分中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制的决定, Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China
Biden administration announces AI Diffusion framework for chip exports
BIS announced a rule requiring authorization to export advanced chips to more countries and controlling the weights of the most advanced closed AI models. It had exceptions for some allies and partners. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said it would help keep such technology from foreign adversaries.
China says it will in principle refuse gallium, germanium and antimony exports to the US
Announcement No. 46 said licenses would in principle be refused for gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard material items bound for the US. It also tightened graphite reviews and banned dual-use exports to US military users or uses. Effective at once, it cited national security and non-proliferation.
Source: 商务部公告2024年第46号 关于加强相关两用物项对美国出口管制的公告, Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China
BIS adds 140 entities and new controls on chip tools and high-bandwidth memory
BIS announced controls on 24 types of chipmaking equipment, 3 types of software tools and high-bandwidth memory. It also announced 140 Entity List additions. It said the aim was to impair China's ability to produce advanced-node chips usable in weapons and military AI.
China announces export licensing for antimony and superhard material items
China's Ministry of Commerce and customs agency said exports of listed antimony and superhard material items would require licenses from September 15, 2024. They cited national security and non-proliferation obligations. The listed antimony items include ores, metal and high-purity oxides.
Source: 商务部 海关总署公告2024年第33号 关于对锑等物项实施出口管制的公告, Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China
BIS tightens AI chip rules with a performance density threshold
BIS updated its 2022 controls, adding a performance density threshold and dropping the interconnect bandwidth test. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said the changes would close off evasion routes. The chip rule took effect November 17, 2023, a day later than the release stated.
China announces export licensing for gallium and germanium
China's Ministry of Commerce and customs agency said exports of listed gallium and germanium items would require licenses from August 1, 2023. They cited national security and interests. The listed items include gallium nitride and gallium arsenide.
Source: 商务部 海关总署公告2023年第23号 关于对镓、锗相关物项实施出口管制的公告, Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China
Netherlands publishes license rules for advanced DUV lithography tools
ASML said new Dutch regulations would require export licenses for its most advanced immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems from September 1, 2023. It said these are the TWINSCAN NXT:2000i and later models. It noted sales of its EUV systems were already restricted.
Source: Statement regarding Dutch government's export control regulations announcement, ASML
BIS announces export controls on advanced chips and chipmaking tools for China
BIS imposed controls on advanced computing chips, supercomputer end uses and items bound for some fabs in China. The fabs covered make logic chips at 16nm or 14nm or below, DRAM at 18nm half-pitch or less, or NAND with 128 layers or more. BIS said China uses such technology for military systems and human rights abuses.
Additional sources
- Announcement No.18 of 2025 of The Ministry of Commerce and The General Administration of Customs of The People’s Republic of China Announcing the decision to implement export control on some medium and heavy rare earth related items, Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Gallium, U.S. Geological Survey
- Implementation of Additional Export Controls: Certain Advanced Computing Items; Supercomputer and Semiconductor End Use; Updates and Corrections, Federal Register
Update history
- Rewritten in shorter, plainer sentences. No facts were changed.
Articles on US-China Tech Race
Why Can't Nvidia Sell Its Best Chips to China? Export Controls Explained
US rules require a license to ship advanced AI chips to China and presume denial for the most powerful ones. Nvidia says Beijing has also restricted the chips Washington does allow.