The US-China Tech Race Explained: Chips, AI, Robots and Space

The US-China tech race has no single scoreboard. As of October 2026, the United States and its allies hold the lead in the most advanced chips and the machines that make them. US companies also attract far more private AI investment. China installs most of the world's new factory robots and dominates rare-earth processing. It has nearly closed the gap in AI model performance. Both governments are working toward crewed Moon landings.

Who is ahead in chips, the US or China?

The most advanced chips depend on a supply chain that China cannot fully access. Stanford University's 2026 AI Index notes that a single company, Taiwan's TSMC, fabricates almost every leading AI chip. The finest chip features are printed with extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, CNA reported in September 2026. It said the Dutch company ASML is their sole manufacturer. ASML said in June 2026 that it has never shipped an EUV machine to China, according to Reuters.

China is working around those limits. In December 2025 the research firm TechInsights reported on a Huawei phone processor, the Kirin 9030. It said the chip was built on the N+3 process of Chinese chipmaker SMIC. It described N+3 as an extension of SMIC's 7-nanometer-class technology, made without EUV. It said N+3 is denser than its predecessor but still well short of the 5-nanometer processes of TSMC and Samsung. Nanometer labels name generations of manufacturing technology, and smaller numbers are newer.

That same month, Reuters reported that Chinese engineers had built a prototype EUV machine. According to a Tom's Hardware account of that report, the prototype was completed in Shenzhen in early 2025. The account says it generates EUV light but cannot yet make chips. The government wants first chips in 2028, and 2030 was described as more realistic.

In AI chips, Huawei said in September 2026 that it is releasing a new Ascend generation every year. It said the Ascend 960DT is due in the first quarter of 2027, and the 970 and 980 in 2028 and 2029. Rotating chairman Eric Xu has claimed, citing data Huawei collected, that Ascend has passed Nvidia in Chinese market share, according to The Register.

Who is winning the AI race, the US or China?

On model quality the two countries are nearly level. The AI Index found that US and Chinese models have traded the lead several times since early 2025. It found that the top US model was ahead by 2.7 percent in March 2026.

The United States still produces more of the leading systems. It produced 59 notable AI models in 2025 against China's 35. US private AI investment totaled $285.9 billion in 2025, more than 23 times China's $12.4 billion. The report cautions that private figures probably undercount Chinese spending because of government guidance funds. China leads in the volume of AI publications, citations and patent output.

Where is China ahead? Robots and rare earths

China's clearest lead is in factory automation. The International Federation of Robotics reported that China installed 354,000 industrial robots in 2025, or 59 percent of the global total. The United States was the second-largest market, with almost 38,500 installations.

China also holds leverage over materials. In April 2025 it imposed export controls on seven heavy rare-earth elements and related magnets, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA said the resulting magnet shortage led some automakers to slow or temporarily stop production. In October 2025 China announced broader controls that would reach foreign-made products containing Chinese rare earths. The White House said in November 2025 that China had agreed to suspend that expansion as part of a trade deal. The IEA described it as still suspended in late September 2026. Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) wrote in April 2026 that China continues to dominate rare-earth processing and refining.

Is there a new space race to the Moon?

Both countries plan crewed lunar landings. NASA flew four astronauts around the Moon on Artemis II. The mission launched on April 1, 2026 and splashed down on April 10. NASA says its 2027 mission will test operations with commercially built landers in low Earth orbit. It says astronauts are scheduled to land near the lunar South Pole in 2028.

China's human spaceflight agency says it is working toward a crewed Moon mission by around 2030, according to the state-run newspaper China Daily. In February 2026 China carried out an in-flight abort test of its Mengzhou crew spacecraft, SpaceNews reported. It said China also carried out a rocket recovery test that month with a Long March 10 demonstration vehicle. Ars Technica wrote in September 2026 that a much longer delay to NASA's schedule would let China land first.

What to watch

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on September 23, 2026 that the trade truce would be extended by two months, to January 10, 2027, NBC News reported.
• After Xi Jinping's visit to Washington on September 23 to 25, CSIS analysts wrote that Beijing remains dissatisfied with US limits on high-end chip exports. They wrote that Washington remains dissatisfied with the flow of rare earths.
• Huawei's chip roadmap and China's EUV prototype carry dates set by their backers, not independently confirmed results.